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A few years ago there was a big battle of will the internet win or the mobile? Now it seems to be clear, it will be that the internet will converge onto the mobile. In fact, the future of the internet is mobile. And Google are not alone among internet giants believing in a mobile future. From , Yahoo has been saying the same. So if you thought that perhaps the internet was threatening your business, that may be a short-lived threat, say for industries already feeling the full threat like bookstores or video rentals or music stores or travel agencies etc.
If the internet itself is headed to mobile, the salvation for a bookseller or video or music or travel company is not to go online, it is to 'leapfrog' the technology gap and go directly to mobile. Like the book publishing industry is doing in Japan for example where mobile books outsell ebooks already. Advertising goes where the media audiences go.
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Advertising has been on mobile phones for a decade already but in mostly small numbers and niche campaigns hidden in the digital ad budgets. That changed last year when the advertising industry woke up seriously to mobile. When the global ad budget declined, and all other forms of advertising shrunk in revenues, mobile advertising spending doubled worldwide.
As I witnessed when I delivered my keynote to the Mobile Marketing Association global event in the meccha of advertising, Manhattan of the Mad Men of Madison Avenue haha, the big global ad agencies are all ramping up their competences in mobile, and I am witnessing it myself with far greater interest now in my mobile marketing workshops and seminars, such as delivering a keynote to the big MMA event in Sao Paulo this week.
The global ad industry top management may be late to the mobile party, but they are dead serious about it now. As we learned from Universal McCann the advertising giant, one in seven media minutes is spent with mobile already today, as mobile is often the digital response channel for legacy media like television, radio, print etc. Voting for American Idol, that kind of experiences. The computer industry is going mobile.
The internet is going mobile too. And the major media industries and advertising are headed to a pocket near you too. But thats not the full picture.
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I have said for many years now, that we have yet another 'dimension' in this race, of a major economic sector headed to mobile: Money. In practise, its banking and credit cards when considering the classic major financial industries, or digital money in a technical sense insurance is also going to join the mobile revolution a bit later.
The first two SMS-enabled vending machines were installed in Finland twelve years ago, and soon thereafter the first SMS-enabled parking was launched in Norway. We've had full mobile payment solutions in the Philippines for a decade already. Mobile credit cards are nearly as old. But the migration of money is very slow. We hear of some great successes - more than half of Helsinki area public transportation single tickes are sold via mobile, and all of parking in Estonia is mobile, and now more than half of all banking accounts in Kenya are mobile banking accounts.
But its still tiny bits in small countries.
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Yes, about half of South Koreans and the Japanese have mobile digital money enabled phones and services, but its nowhere near yet where half of their economy would transit the phone, and they are the most advanced digitally converged nations. In m-money it is very early going. Gartner told us that in there were 73 million people who used a mobile phone to make a payment.
Contrast that with the 2. If we want to measure the 'migration rate' then currently one third of one percent of all banking accounts have migrated to mobile.
That is a very tiny fraction. But that was exactly how it was with smartphones vs personal computers in , or how it was with the mobile internet users out of all internet users in , or what it was with advetising in Less than one percent.
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Its easy for many in banking and credit cards to be fooled into thinking this tsunami wave of convergence will not hit their shores. Yet in South Africa it is normal to get your paycheck paid directly to your mobile account. Norway was the first country to let you submit your tax return by mobile. South Korea was the first country to make 'cards' out of Credit Cards optional - all credit card services are automatically enabled onto your mobile phone instantly when the credit is approved , and if you want, a free plastic traditional credit card can be mailed in a few days also to your home address - if you so desire.
There is no need for plastic cards in South Korea, but you may travel to a less advanced country like say Germany or USA or Australia or France where they 'still use plastic credit cards' haha In Japan the mobile wallet is the most advanced where it not just includes your banking and credit and payment and loyalty cards. It adds your keys to your home and car, the pass-keys to your office, your identity card, and now as the phone collects your payment behavior, they have launched the mobile consierge to the phone, to help manage your life. The users absolutely love it, suggesting the phone seems to read your mind..
And taking those lessons, Nokia launched Nokia Money in India and is enabling near field to all its new smartphones.
And like the PC, our TV viewing tends to be within a short window of time - for most of us thats during TV's 'prime time' ie evening viewing, on fairly consistent time windows based on our TV viewing habits and our fave TV shows. We can assume that the legacy businesses, that do not embrace the digital convergence, to survive as a premium professional services industry but eventually fail the mass market. Another major redesign is Accessibility. Yet the opportunities did not come from just fixed telecoms services like local and long distance calls and voicemail, or those enabled on mobile. Who would want a service only within the M25 when Vodafone and Cellnet offered a service across the whole of the UK? The media industries are more interesting.
While the big banking execs are mostly blissfully ignorant, thinking that launching an iPhone App is tantamount to a mobile strategy, haha, the tsunami wave is well under way. So the migration has started. Sweden started this summer the first parliamentary discussions about when is the right time to abandon printing cash, and moving to a mobile money only digital money economy! They aren't about to do it any time soon, but they have started the serious discussion about the end of money as we knew it.
That covers the giant industries I want to mention in this blog today. Telecoms, broadcast and print media, advertising, computers, the internet, banking, credit cards. These are all industries whose size is above Billion dollars annually - ie each is bigger than the total global handset business including smartphones and dumbphones and all phone based accessories like spare batteries and phone covers and memory cards etc combined, is worth about billion dollars in total - a small fraction of the 1.
They were involved in the first mobile battle of convergence, what I called the 'Battle for the Pocket' in my second book M-Profits in There also are many other industries that are seeing impact from mobile, but who are unlikely to be totally cannibalized by mobile. So take air travel. Finnair launched the world's first mobile check-in in and today half of their passengers use the service. But mobile will not enable our air travel. We can't fly on the phone. We can book our seat and pay for the ticket and get a boarding pass to the phone, but we still need an airplane to burn jet fuel to fly from one airport to another.
That isn't changing by mobile.
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So mobile can only influence a small part of the travel experience, whether in airplanes or hotels or trains etc. But in music, mobile can cannibalize all digital music. Same in the newsmedia or gaming or advertising or indeed money and banking and credit cards. So yes, the automobile industry is eager to get into mobile too, many new cars feature SIM card slots for example and the next internet after the internet has gone mobile will be in cars.
But again, if we need a car to get us from point A to point B, until they invent teleportation, we will keep needing that car or some rival like a bicycle or bus etc. Mobile cannot cannibalize the whole car market like it can't cannibalize the air travel market or the hotel industry etc.
So this blog is about those industries that can expect far more than half of their total value, possibly the whole industry, to migrate to mobile in the coming years and decades. So lets look a bit at how far we've migrated into mobile. The telecoms industry is far along the way.
At the end of last year we reached mid-point, where half of all internet users accessed the web at least part of the time using a mobile phone which includes the simple WAP type of mobile internet usage common in many parts of the Emerging World markets. Meanwhile there was no mobile phone that was a computer prior to There were stand-alone PDAs yes, but no advanced 'smartphone' to give computer like performance. Today all major PC makers have entered the smartphones battle and all say the future of the computer is the smartphone something I have been saying for many years now.
I counted on this blog that if we add both the traditional PCs including desktops and portable computers, and the smartphones, we get a total market size of million units for So we can say that in 13 years, mobile has already cannibalized over a third of the computer market.
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Videogaming followed and today a quarter of videogaming service revenues is generated on mobile. It would be an interesting market analysis to count all gaming-oriented smartphones like the iPhone, most downloaded apps are games after all, the iPhone can be said to be the first globally successful gaming phone platform to rival the Nintendo and Playstation Portable.. I don't have a good measure for wristwatches and alarm clocks.